COT Report — Commitment of Traders Data Explained

Answer Capsule: The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report is a weekly snapshot of institutional futures positioning, showing how commercial hedgers, large speculators, and small traders are positioned. Released every Friday at 3:30 PM EST. Extreme commercial net-long positions often precede market bottoms; extreme net-short positions often precede tops.

What Is the COT Report?

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report is published weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It breaks down the open interest in futures markets by trader category. This is the closest thing retail traders have to seeing "what the smart money is doing."

Three Key Trader Categories

How to Trade COT Data

1. The Commercial Fade: When commercial hedgers are at extreme net-long positions (historically high buying), it often signals a market bottom. When they are extremely net-short, it signals a top. Commercials are the "smart money."
2. The Speculator Extreme: When large speculators are extremely long a currency or commodity, the trend may be overextended. Crowded trades reverse violently.
3. The COT Index: (Current Net Position - Min) / (Max - Min) over a rolling 52-week window. Values above 80 = overbought (bearish for commercials). Below 20 = oversold (bullish for commercials).
4. Cross-Market Confirmation: Compare COT positioning across correlated markets (EURUSD, DXY, US bonds) for macro confirmation.

Key Markets to Track with COT