The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula for determining the optimal size of a bet to maximize long-term growth. In trading, it helps answer: how much of my account should I risk on this trade?
Kelly Criterion Explained
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula for determining the optimal size of a bet to maximize long-term growth. In trading, it helps answer: how much of my account should I risk on this trade?
Key Principles
- Never risk more than 1-2% of your account on a single trade
- Always use stop losses — no exceptions
- Understand the math: a 50% drawdown requires 100% recovery
- Keep margin level above 200% at all times
- Diversify across instruments and timeframes
Common Mistakes
- Using position sizes that are too large for your account
- Moving stop losses further away when trades go against you
- Trading without understanding pip values for your instrument
- Ignoring volatility — using the same stop size for all instruments
- Over-leveraging to maximize potential profits
Related Tools
Use the Position Size Calculator, Drawdown Calculator, and Margin Calculator together for complete risk management.